In his latest publication, “The Coming Wave,” Mustafa Suleyman embarks on a captivating exploration, drawing intriguing parallels between the burgeoning surge of artificial intelligence (AI) and the recurrent flood myths woven into cultures worldwide. These timeless narratives, from Plato’s account of the submerged city of Atlantis to the biblical saga of Noah’s Ark and the cataclysmic asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, all portray colossal waves reshaping the world and catalyzing transformative change. Suleyman adeptly draws an analogy between these epic tales and the imminent rise of technological intelligence and advances in biological welfare, envisioning a modern-day wave poised to reshape the course of humanity.
A mere decade ago, AI was relegated to the outskirts of scholarly discussions, the domain of a select group of researchers. Today, it stands on the precipice of a relentless surge, promising wealth creation and groundbreaking medical advancements while concurrently posing existential threats. Our paramount duty lies in ensuring that AI remains subservient to humanity, its unintended consequences and ripple effects vigilantly controlled.
The unrelenting quest for more, better, and cheaper has catalyzed the emergence of a new generation of AI models. These systems demonstrate remarkable capabilities, crafting novel imagery, composing coherent text with profound depth, replicating human-like voices with astonishing realism, and generating breathtaking musical compositions. Even domains once deemed exclusive to human faculties, such as long-term planning, imaginative thinking, and complex simulation, are now within the grasp of AI-driven progress, taking monumental strides.
Undoubtedly, AI wields immense power for good, yet it also harbors profound perils and ethical dilemmas, paralleling the ethical considerations inherent in other forms of power. While in 2010 AI garnered minimal attention, today it dominates news cycles and seamlessly integrates into our daily lives, from trading stocks to website construction, all nested within the confines of our smartphones. The world’s largest corporations and wealthiest nations fervently propel cutting-edge AI models and genetic engineering tools, propelled by staggering investments in the tens of billions of dollars.
As these nascent technologies mature, they will swiftly infiltrate society, becoming more accessible and cost-effective. They hold the promise of revolutionizing medicine, ushering in breakthroughs in clean energy, spawning new industries, and elevating the quality of life across nearly every facet of human existence. The impending AI wave and its accompanying innovations, while offering a brighter future, mandate vigilant ethical stewardship to ensure that its formidable force remains a benevolent one.
In “The Coming Wave,” Mustafa Suleyman diverts attention away from the existential menace posed by superintelligent AIs. Instead, he asserts that highly intelligent AI systems, while not yet superintelligent, have the potential to unleash chaos due to their rapid proliferation and the profound augmentation of human agency within a brief span. This surge in AI capability could manifest through AI-generated cyber-attacks, the emergence of DIY biohazards, job displacement arising from technological progress, or the amplification of political instability via misinformation. Unfortunately, our institutions are ill-equipped to confront this impending technological tsunami.
Suleyman relentlessly emphasizes the inevitability of this impending wave, reiterating phrases like “the wave is coming,” “the coming wave is coming,” and even “the coming wave really is coming.” His conviction is perhaps rooted in his firsthand experience of the transformative strides achieved in AI research over the past 15 years, culminating in his substantial financial success. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge that, akin to other technological advancements, AI has experienced periods of stagnation known as “AI winters,” during which initial promise waned, and funding dried up for extended durations. Suleyman’s perspective overlooks the genuine possibility of another AI winter, which could provide society with additional time to adapt to and mitigate the societal upheavals caused by technological advancements.
Even if the frenetic pace of technological progress persists, it is unlikely that societies will tolerate the ethical transgressions that Suleyman fears most. For instance, when a Chinese scientist publicly announced in 2018 that he had edited the genes of twin girls, he was met with a three-year prison sentence and widespread condemnation, with no similar reports surfacing since. Moreover, the European Union is poised to enact prohibitions on certain AI applications, such as facial recognition in public spaces, as outlined in its forthcoming AI Act. Traditional legal and cultural resistance is expected to impede the proliferation of the most disruptive and alarming AI practices.
Despite characterizing the containment problem as the “defining challenge of our era,” Suleyman refrains from advocating for a complete tech moratorium, potentially influenced by his recent establishment of a new AI company. Instead, he outlines a series of proposals in the book’s conclusion. Regrettably, these proposals do not inspire confidence or reassurance in their ability to effectively address the impending challenges presented by the AI wave.
